Radical Avenue

It takes some effort to get the governments of Nicaragua, Venezuela and the United States all on the same page, but perpetrators of the June 28 coup in Honduras managed to accomplish just that. Their forcible removal of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya has drawn condemnations from every nation in the Organization of American States, and scorn from the people of Honduras.

The self anointed interim leader of Honduras, Roberto Micheletti, wants to stay in charge through national elections scheduled for November. But since the Micheletti regime has shown no respect for the will of the people, there’s no reason for Hondurans to accept the legitimacy of any upcoming election staged by his followers. President Zelaya should be immediately re-instated as president and allowed to serve out his term.

Costa Rican President Oscar Arias has attempted to broker a power sharing agreement, to no avail. A protracted confrontation between political groups in Honduras will scare away investors and hurt regional economies.

Welcome back to the Organization of American States, Cuba! Quite a lot has happened over the past forty years. In particular, the OAS has taken the following positive steps toward accomplishing our key objectives:
1) agreed to maintain an ongoing dialogue about issues of vital importance to the region;
2) drafted several memoranda outlining plans for mutually beneficial investments;
3) met regularly to review past understandings and enjoy fruity tropical drinks;
4) engaged in shouting matches, usually pitting the US against everyone else or the US and Canada against everyone else;
5) fought wars with each other in central America, and
6) moderately prepared ourselves for the challenges that lie ahead.

Pushing Democracy
We’ve seen several peaceful transfers of power from one political party to another in Latin America over the past few years. Cuban citizens will hear about vibrant democracies in OAS nations like El Salvador, Bolivia and Paraguay and wonder why they can’t similarly participate in their own government. And the Castro’s will find it increasingly difficult to blame the US for all of Cuba’s shortcomings.

Harleys in Havana
Thousands of Harley Davidson motorcycles were sold in Cuba during the Batista years and the bikes are still quite popular on the streets of Havana. However Cuban Harley enthusiasts can’t buy spare parts directly from the manufacturer. The trade embargo with Cuba deprives Harley Davidson and other US companies of a potentially lucrative source of revenue. Lifting the embargo would boost both the US and Cuban economies.

The US and Cuba have many differences, but the trade embargo no longer makes any sense. The Cold War is over and Cuba’s government hasn’t changed. But while the US trades extensively with socialist China, it still shuns socialist Cuba.

Humanitarian organizations will have their hands full this summer.

Sri Lanka
The Sri Lankan army triumphed in their war on the insurgent Tamil Tigers, but winning the peace may be more difficult. The war displaced thousands of Tamil families and Sri Lankan officials have denied relief organizations access to the refugees.

According to numerous accounts, villages in northern Sri Lanka have been devastated by the fighting. It’s still not clear how the government will integrate the refugees back into peaceful society.

Somalia
Somalia’s government has been unstable for decades. Recently, fighting between government forces and rebel factions has intensified and forced around 67,000 people from their homes in Mogadishu. The refugees mostly live in squalor outside the war zones.

Pakistan
As the Pakistani army steps up its offensive against Taliban forces in the Swat valley, refugees are steaming south towards Islamabad. Military officials in Pakistan have made it clear that the war will continue in the coming months, with Pakistani forces driving north towards the Russian border.

2.4 million Pakistani’s have already been displaced this year, with thousands more fleeing the battles every day.

The Mexican government moved decisively last week in response to world wide concerns over spreading of the deadly H1N1 virus. Warnings went out, health professionals were invited in and public events were severely curtailed. Thanks in part to these extraordinary measures; life in Mexico may soon return to normal. Mexico has now earned a reputation as a nation which reacts swiftly and strongly to public health threats.

Apparently a number of countries learned lessons from the lethal SARS epidemic six years ago. Only a few people will seek to blame the Mexican government for the initial H1N1 virus outbreak, but nearly everyone expected a meaningful response once the severity of the threat became known. Mexicans deserve credit for their willingness to tolerate short term economic pain in order to assure the world that Mexico is a safe place.

If H1N1 turns out to be less dangerous than once feared, public health officials across the continent should be commended for their vigilance in containing the virus. Without quick action, the virus could have easily infected many more people than it has so far.

I’m guessing that about twenty years ago while a bunch of politicians in Washington were saying “you know those fellers in China could sure be useful to us someday”, a gathering of politicians in Beijing agreed that “the Yankees are like hungry birds that fly too low and squawk too loudly.” China and the United States have crossed paths a lot in the past two decades.

Traditionally, US citizens purchase merchandise Made in China, and China lends our government enough money to underwrite our extravagances. But now the US and China are convening over a mining project in a highly volatile part of the planet. In the mountains south of Kabul, the US Army will provide security for a Chinese plan to extract raw materials from the Aynak copper reserves.

US troops have already enhanced their presence in the Logar province of Afghanistan, where Taliban fighters continue to harass them. The Army will also protect a dirt road which a Chinese firm is paving as part of a $3 billion project to begin mining in the region. But surely Chinese investors don’t expect the short attention span Americans to stick around forever. When US forces leave, the task of protecting the mines will presumably fall to Afghan soldiers and Chinese security personnel.

This investment by the Chinese shows a lot of faith in the future of central Asia. While the copper will provide resources to support Chinese manufacturing interests, the risks are substantial. For Afghanistan, the potential benefits are obvious, including private employment opportunities, infrastructure improvements and all of the benefits that flow from long term international investments.

I guess “leftist” is alright again in America. Not so long ago, charges of leftist politics conjured up vague notions of Soviet battleships anchored in American ports. Leftist meant Marxist, which means communism, which communists call socialism. Now socialist governments are the ones that bailout bankers who get caught with their pants down as the bottom drops out of the free market.

By all indications the new President-elect of El Salvador, Mauricio Funes, will emphasize public services more than his predecessors, while maintaining a consistent foreign policy. “This is not the time for revenge. This is time for political understanding,” Mr. Funes announced. “The time has come for the excluded, the opportunity has arrived for genuine democrats, for men and women who believe in social justice and solidarity.”

President-elect Funes, of the FLMN, recently won a close election against Rodrigo Avila of ARENA. The FLMN includes many Salvadorans who fought against the United States and its allies in the 1980s. ARENA has controlled the government since the cease fire of 1992.

Mr. Funes has a number of reasons to favor positive relations with the United States. Dollars are the official currency in El Salvador, which has seen an influx of investment from the US. El Salvador and the United States are both members of the Central American Free Trade Agreement. The many Salvadorans living in the US have a keen interest in the politics of their homeland, and turmoil is bad for business.

It is encouraging to see a peaceful transition of power from one political party to another in El Salvador. If Mr. Funes and his FLMN allies can deliver on their positive agenda, Salvadoran voters will probably elect to keep them in charge.

While the Dow Jones and Nasdaq falter, other marketplaces continue to thrive. For example, the European Climate Exchange and the Chicago Climate Exchange have both trumpeted solid increases in volume over the past few months. Climate exchange markets allow companies to offset the cost of their carbon emissions with investments in conservation projects. This cap and trade system has been popular in Europe for years and is now favored by the Obama administration here in the United States.

Strong climate exchange markets indicate that money will still flow to reforestation projects around the world, like the one currently under way in the Philippines. Over 43,609 hectares were reforested by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) last year, exceeding its 2007 record of 27,838 hectares by 55 percent. DENR Secretary Lito Atienza credited President Arroyo’s efforts to expand reforestation activities in the country, especially in river basins that feed agricultural plains along the Pampanga River Basin, Bicol River Basin, Cagayan River Basin and the Laoag River Basin.

In addition to protecting and beautifying the planet, reforestation projects bring employment to rural villages. In the past, the natural resources of growing countries have been exploited by foreign groups, leaving politically disadvantaged communities devastated. Reforestation projects reverse that trend.

Reforestation also protects the habitat of endangered species, like the little rodent scientists recently discovered in the dwarf mossy forests of Mount Hamiguitan on Mindanao Island. Weighing in at a mere 75 grams (6.2 ounces), the Hamiguitan batomys has a long furry tail and a modest demeanor. These diminutive critters must be delighted by their government’s commitment to healthy woodlands.

Ghana
Democracy proponents are encouraged by in the recent peaceful transfer of power in Ghana. This is the second such democratic transfer of the Ghanaian presidency since the 1990s. Jerry Rawlings, a military leader, held an election in 1992 and became president of this tiny coastal nation. Then Mr. Rawling’s National Democratic Congress lost the presidential election in 2000, and John Kufuor of the New Patriotic Party took over. Now, John Atta Mills of the National Democratic Congress is the president.

A vibrant democracy and open markets in Ghana have attracted international investors to a nation once plagued by military coups and political instability. Still, Ghana is a poor country and Mr. Atta Mills will have his hands full as he tries to bring greater prosperity to his people.

Guinea
In Guinea, a captain in the military staged a coup last month after the death of President Lansana Conte. While most consider this a set back for democracy in Guinea, the leader of the coup has already expressed a desire to hold a presidential election. Captain Moussa Dadis Camara says he hopes to stage the election sometime within the next 12 months. If Captain Camara is true to his word, then Guinea could follow Ghana’s lead, and help establish more democratic institutions in western Africa.

Nigeria
Independent observers consider Nigeria’s 2007 general election deeply flawed due to numerous reports of stolen votes, corruption and intimidation. Now several Nigerian politicians are pointing to Ghana as an example of how to conduct fair elections on the continent. Time will tell if the rhetoric leads to real democratic reforms in Nigeria.

Zimbabweans have no time for Christmas this year. The kids are too busy scrounging for a meal of crickets and beetles. Parents need to find bottled water because all of the wells are contaminated. Conditions deteriorate every day. Surviving the holidays really means something in this part of the world.

Cholera
According to the Red Cross, nearly 1,200 have died from a cholera epidemic sweeping through Zimbabwe. Cholera is easily prevented when people have access to clean drinking water. But even this basic necessity has grown scarce under President Robert Mugabe’s disastrous rule.

The epidemic is expected to worsen during Zimbabwe’s coming rainy season. Despite the humanitarian catastrophe and international scorn, Mugabe remains belligerent.

Starvation
The paranoid Mr. Mugabe banned international charitable organizations from operating in Zimbabwe for three months last summer. He blames all of his countries problems on Britain and the United States. Now more than five million Zimbabweans are facing starvation.

Public institutions like schools and hospitals are all collapsing under Mugabe’s regime. Runaway inflation has made the Zimbabwean currency essentially worthless. Since civil servants get paid in Zimbabwe dollars, their wages have no value. Government offices have closed because no one bothers to show up for work.

Abuse
President Mugabe uses a variety of intimidation tactics to stay in power. His government ordered land seizures put a number of his political opponent’s supporters out of work. His soldiers beat people who show up at rallies for anyone other than him. Mugabe’s political rivals have been imprisoned, tortured and killed.

Recently Mugabe destroyed the homes and businesses of 700,000 Zimbabweans after an election which he lost. Some of these Africans apparently had the audacity to vote for someone else. Life in Zimbabwe may improve next year. It couldn’t get any worse.

Dr. Muhammad Yunus won a Nobel Peace Prize in 2005 for identifying innovative means of getting loans to people who need them the most. By profiting from small unsecured loans to entrepreneurs in Bangladesh, he proved that poor people make good credit risks. And microcredit lending was born.

Low income borrowers may not have much collateral, but they make up for it with an abundance of incentive. Empty pockets don’t necessarily suggest a lack of skills. Thanks to Dr. Yunus, growing companies in poor countries now have access to the type of resources they could once only dream of.

Kiva.org
Kiva.org is a website which allows individuals to make microcredit loans to worthy entrepreneurs using Paypal. Unlike charity, Kiva lenders can expect repayment of their loans. This allows people to invest once, and then use that capital to help improve a series of small businesses all around the world.

The Future
The World Wide Web gives merchants new tools to bypass institutional roadblocks that have stymied the free flow of commerce for generations. Corrupt governments present less of an obstacle because they no longer own all channels of communication within their country. Now sellers from economically disadvantaged regions market their products on Ebay, use Paypal to collect payments and obtain small loans through Kiva.org.

Facebook has plenty of devoted Kiva fans. Individual investors use their capital assets to develop long distance commercial relationships limited only by the quality of communications. These innovations make information technology infrastructure critically important to developing communities’ chances for prosperity.

Pakistan
Stepping aside graciously just doesn’t come naturally to politicians. Pervez Musharraf’s resignation as President of Pakistan signals a new era for that country, perhaps to a more democratic, less authoritarian rule.

I suspect that most Pakistanis are relieved to have witnessed a somewhat orderly transition of power back to civilian authority. Raucous political fights are generally preferable to military coups.

Bolivia
The struggle between Bolivia’s new President Evo Morales and his political opponents over the distribution of wealth from the countries’ natural resources shows no signs of abatement. A twenty four hour general strike and rioting in states which oppose Morales have added to the tensions.

Bolivian police used tear gas to break up demonstrations in the eastern city of Santa Cruz. It’s difficult to see how Morales can govern effectively under these conditions even though he did recently survive a recall election.

Paraguay
While President Fernando Lugo of Paraguay enjoys greater support in his country than Morales, he also faces a variety of pressing problems. Paraguay’s new government under Lugo hopes to re-distribute farm land that was given to friends of the former dictator Alfredo Stroessner. Stroessner’s cronies were rewarded with around 20 million acres of land during his thirty five year rule. Paraguay’s new leaders won’t get that land back by simply asking.

Lugo hopes to also fight government corruption and improve living conditions in his country. While Lugo has many challenges, Paraguay’s peaceful transition away from a political party that has dominated the nation for decades is another positive sign for this region of the world.

In order to chastise our European allies for failing to support the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said this:

Germany has been a problem and France has been a problem, but you look at vast numbers of other countries in Europe, they’re not with France and Germany on this, they’re with the US. You’re thinking of Europe as Germany and France. I don’t. I think that’s old Europe.

Mr. Rumsfeld must love the Republic of Georgia, which sent troops to fight alongside US soldiers in Iraq.

Last week our former Cold War adversary Russia invaded Georgia, a move Rumsfeld’s old boss considers unacceptable. Russia has completely ignored President Bush’s call for a cease fire and has left the US looking like a paper tiger.

NATO Weakened Under Bush
Russia would never invade Germany or France. These countries belong to NATO. NATO was established to protect Europe and the North Atlantic. An attack on one member triggers a response from all other members.

While Russia is in no position invade a NATO country, Georgia is another story. The United States has no long standing obligation to defend the Georgian borders. That’s the difference between “old” Europe and “vast numbers of other countries” in Europe.

Bush and Rumsfeld’s cowboy diplomacy has left the US in the worst possible position. We’ve insulted our old allies and failed to protect our new friends.

Putin No Friend of the US
The problematic outcome of Russia’s war in Afghanistan twenty years ago undoubtedly lead to some consternation for the Russian military. Hard line Russian politicians have probably been itching for a chance to give their troops a shot at redemption. Also Georgia is of tremendous strategic importance to oil companies. Sound familiar?

Far from being rejected by the Russian people, this military operation in Georgia will trigger nationalist pride and strengthen the hand of the Russian politician who ordered the invasion. George Bush looked into Vladimir Putin’s eyes and saw Dick Cheney’s soul. No wonder they get along so well.

American politicians like to promote democracy as a polished gemstone behind a plate glass window at the jewelry store, rather than as a diamond in the rough still encrusted in stone. A country’s decision to embrace democratic reform is only the first step in a long, arduous process of political reconciliation. Real democracy requires consensus building among people who disagree about almost everything.

When a country selects its political leaders through legitimate elections, other countries must deal with whomever the citizens choose. In the long run this is preferable to totalitarian governments, where power only transfers from one group to another through violence. If all political organizations in a country agree to peaceful exchanges of power based on elections, it indicates that the nation is ready for long term political stability.

Bolivia
President Evo Morales has encountered a bit of headwind in his sail towards political reform in Bolivia. Over half of Bolivia’s regional governors have rejected a vote on whether they should stay in office and instead are calling for early general elections.

Last week Tarija became the fourth province to vote for greater independence from the central government. The war of words seems likely to continue for a while. At least these skirmishes are decided by results from the ballot box.

Kosovo
In a similar rebuke of national solidarity, Kosovo’s minority Serbs have assembled their own parliament in the northern town of Mitrovica, rather than assent to the terms of Kosovo’s new constitution. It may be hard to envision how this separate parliament will govern effectively, but it’s easy to see that plenty of animosity remains in this part of Europe.

Democracy, Bolivia, Evo Morales, Kosovo

Even the dark cloud over US foreign policy left behind by the Bush administration has a silver lining. Other countries now know that they can’t count on America for political leadership, so they’ve taken a more active role in pursuing their own diplomatic initiatives.

Kurdistan, Iran and Turkey
No group has embraced the new reality of Iraq more than the Kurds. Residents living in and around Erbil enjoy a relatively peaceful, modern life in what they call Iraqi Kurdistan. Unfortunately, the behavior of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, has alarmed the neighbors.

A top Turkish general recently confirmed that his forces are coordinating their attacks on Kurdish rebels with the Iranians. Saddam Hussein’s iron fist impeded Kurdish ambitions to create an independent state carved out of northern Iraq, southern Turkey and western Iran. The power vacuum left by Hussein’s removal opened the door to new battles over these disputed territories.

Turkey, Syria and Israel
Ongoing fighting with the Kurds hasn’t left Turkey entirely preoccupied. Turkey is also hosting a series of peace talks between Israel and Syria. Syria serves as a conduit for Iranian aid to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. An enforceable peace treaty with Syria therefore would reduce Iranian influence in the region and help stabilize Israel’s northern border.

The Bush administration rejects any diplomatic contact with Syria, which they accuse of supporting terrorists in Iraq. That’s why Israel turned to Turkey, a friendly, majority Muslim country in the region.

Israel, Iran and Lebanon
Israel hopes that a peace agreement with Syria will also bring them closer to a lasting truce with Hezbollah, which now exercises veto power over the government of Lebanon, and Hamas, which runs part of the Palestinian territories. The Bush administration opposes all talks with Hezbollah and Hamas because it considers them terrorist organizations.

Hamas and Hezbollah came to power through elections. Essentially the Bush administration wants to spread democracy throughout the middle east, but voters may only elect politicians friendly to the United States – or else. The president’s point of view is preposterous, and everyone knows it. The US needs a president who can handle reality.

Kurdistan, Turkey Iran, Syria, Israel, Iran

According to reports from devastated Sichuan province, the Chinese government has devoted substantial resources to ongoing earthquake rescue and recovery efforts. China’s emergency response now stands in stark contrast to the corrupt Burmese military’s tepid reaction to their recent catastrophe.

The SARS epidemic of 2004 seems to have lead to something of an epiphany for the Chinese ruling party. No one condemned them for the natural disaster itself. Instead they were blamed for their selfish efforts to downplay the scope of the crisis and for their callous disregard for public safety.

China has now changed its ways. Foreign journalists are allowed to cover natural disasters from inside the country. Chinese citizens have more access to information sharing over the internet. And the government has mobilized its military to lead the recovery efforts. These are all positive developments for the Chinese people.

One Party Rule Better than Dictatorship
Unlike some socialist countries, Chinese leaders do not serve life terms. Under single party rule, there are at least small opportunities for enlightenment as new leaders within the dominant party introduce reforms. Dictatorships have no such dynamic.

Chinese Military Respects Civilian Authority
In Burma, a military junta runs the government. The generals in charge base their decisions on protecting territory. World opinion matters little to them. Civilians are expendable. The civilian leaders of China look positively magnanimous by comparison.

Isolationism Rejected
Modern Chinese leaders have clearly dismissed the isolationism and paranoia of Chairman Mao, although they would probably never admit it. Maybe China will indeed become a full fledged democracy one day soon.

China, earthquake, Sichuan province, Burma